Prediction: Eric Church’s ‘Desperate Man’ Wins CMA Album of the Year
Eric Church’s latest album Desperate Man will win the CMA Album of the Year in 2019, beating out Thomas Rhett’s Center Point Road, Dan + Shay’s self-titled release, Girl by Maren Morris, and Carrie Underwood’s Cry Pretty. This is the bold prediction Saving Country Music is putting out there right here and now, and we’ll see just how smart or silly it looks when the trophy is handed out on November 13th.
The reasoning for Desperate Man winning is simple. Dissimilar to many of the awards handed out by the Country Music Association, Album of the Year regularly goes to the most qualified, and the most critically-acclaimed, with commercial performance being secondary to the decision. This is how Chris Stapleton shocked the world and won for Traveller in 2015, and again for From ‘A’ Room Vol. 1 in 2017. This is how Kacey Musgraves won for Golden Hour last year, and how Eric Church won the CMA Album of the Year in 2016 for Mr. Misunderstood, and Chief back in 2012.
The nominees for the CMA Album of the Year in 2019 mark an incredibly weak field, and frankly, pretty embarrassing aside from Desperate Man. The only other album that feels it’s even in the same stratosphere is Carrie Underwood’s Cry Pretty. Well-regarded mainstream-level albums from George Strait, Reba McEntire, Randy Houser, and The Pistol Annies were curiously passed over this year. If they were included, maybe there would be a little more intrigue in this pick. Perhaps Carrie Underwood, or maybe Maren Morris will rise up simply because the CMA is putting an emphasis on women in 2019. But this is the only probable way Eric Church loses.
Eric Church has won two of the three CMA Album of the Year trophies he’s been nominated for, and there’s a good reason for that. It’s because out of all of the awards, Album of the Year is the one he roots for the most. “It’s the one award that … I got to quit saying it because it’s the only one we win … but it’s the one award I want the most. Album of the Year is the one that’s most special to me,” Eric Church said after winning the ACM for Album of the Year with Chief in 2013, and echoed these sentiments when he won the CMA Album of the Year for Mr. Misunderstood in 2016. Where the other awards boil down to popularity contests, Album of the Year rewards creativity, and that fits with the mold that Eric Church is going for in his career.
Many Eric Church fans chimed in when the prediction was made that Carrie Underwood would win for Entertainer of the Year, believing that Church is the rightful owner of that trophy in 2019, and has been gunning for it all year with his unique Double Down tour where he plays two shows at the same venue on consecutive nights with no opener. The Eric Church team has also been releasing little sizzle reel videos and such on social media showcasing Church’s fan interaction and the loyalty he enjoys. Most certainly he’s a strong candidate for the Entertainer award as well, and perhaps he will win.
But when the CMAs announced on August 19th that the 2019 presentation would be a celebration of women, and that Carrie Underwood would host the awards with Dolly Parton and Reba McEntire, you could palpably feel the consensus begin to coagulate around Carrie Underwood as being the likely Entertainer of the Year this cycle. This would be the perfect ending for the CMAs, since Entertainer of the Year is the last award to be handed out. And as hard as Eric Church might be lobbying for CMA consideration publicly and privately, the Carrie Underwood camp is lobbying even harder, and for Entertainer of the Year specifically.
And even though bloc voting and horse trading are more difficult with the CMAs compared to the ACMs since the voting segment is so vast and diverse, it still occurs. Whether it’s Carrie Underwood or Eric Church, if you lobby for both Entertainer and Album of the Year, you may not win either as votes get parsed between the two. Put your weight behind winning one or the other, and you just might come out victorious for the one you most want. Just because Eric Church is engaging in a PR campaign for CMA votes doesn’t mean they have to go for Entertainer. In Carrie Underwood’s case, her team is naming her as the presumptive Entertainer of the Year winner by name. The Carrie team wants it, and they want it bad.
Eric Church will have other opportunities to get Entertainer of the Year. Carrie Underwood very well may not. Yet Underwood could win Album of the Year at a future date. In recent years, Entertainer of the Year has become more about a performer’s touring purse as opposed to their critical acclaim or overall popularity. Eric Church is just hitting his stride when it comes to tour numbers. Carrie Underwood may not tour at all in the next year or two.
Who knows, perhaps Eric Church pulls off Album of the Year and Entertainer of the Year in 2019. And if he does, it will go down in history as his night. But if there’s only one trophy for him to have, you can bet it will be Album of the Year, and not just because he’s arguably the most deserving, but because it’s the award he most covets.
October 26, 2019 @ 9:33 am
Unfortunately, there’s a difference between ‘should’ and ‘will’
October 26, 2019 @ 10:23 am
When there’s not a single country album in the running, how do they even pick? Just roll some dice?
I like a small handful of Church’s songs, but still waiting to hear the country one…must be a hidden track or something…
October 26, 2019 @ 10:33 am
The cold hard facts…
October 26, 2019 @ 3:11 pm
I completely agree on both points.
I listened to a few songs off this record of Church’s, the pre release songs. Not one of them did it for me. None were country. I personally didn’t even care to listen to the rest of the record. But I guess at least he ain’t pop.
October 26, 2019 @ 4:26 pm
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QT8vo1hyJY0
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=f59hjVW-fZI
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=r346gvZuJqY
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=okFpc8MtN20
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Y7p5V4GnCmY
May not sound like Roy Acuff but definitely country.
October 26, 2019 @ 4:52 pm
He can pass Guys Like Me as country…I guess… The others though, take out the steel and give him a Seattle accent…folk rock… Still like some of it just fine, I just wouldn’t call it country by any stretch of the imagination. Of course if we’re comparing to Maren Morris…I guess that’s another story. Brittany Spears is just as country.
October 29, 2019 @ 7:20 am
They need to officially create an entire new genre that is a blend of country, rock, & pop. Put people like Eric and Carrie there. Leave “country” to Cody Jinks, Tyler Childers, Kelsey Waldon, etc….. good music is good music, but genre distinction matters when it comes to awards and recognition.
November 2, 2019 @ 5:13 pm
Yes they should call it “Southern Pop” for artists like Kane Brown, Sam Hunt, etc. They did it with rock so why not.
October 26, 2019 @ 10:27 am
No Reba & no George = no interest.
The CMAs will be a CU & MM soap opera with tears & drama. Oh…let’s not forget…the legs of CU!
October 26, 2019 @ 11:09 am
I saw Eric church last night in Little Rock. The banner on the big screen at one point said “entertainer of the fucking year”.
October 26, 2019 @ 1:36 pm
Well, again, perhaps he will win, and perhaps he’s gunning for it hard. But so is Carrie Underwood. And honestly, I think if Carrie doesn’t get it, Garth Brooks might, which is the name nobody is mentioning in the discussion. But Eric better watch out for setting unrealistic expectations. As we’ve seen Luke Bryan and Jason Aldean fans over they years, it’s not pretty when fan bases presume their favorite artist will be the victor. I’m already seeing some of that from Church fans.
October 26, 2019 @ 4:03 pm
Honestly I think the expectations of the Church Choir are very low. Of course we would like him to win, and we think he deserves to win, and it ticks us off that he doesn’t get the recognition we feel he deserves, but at this point it’s kinda par for the course.
October 26, 2019 @ 4:49 pm
For the record, the banner was made by Church Fans, it wasn’t something Eric or his team created. Church fans kind of have an understanding of how this goes and realize that he’s probably not going to win, but in our minds he’s definitely deserving of it!
October 26, 2019 @ 5:46 pm
Ah ha. That makes much more sense. I was surprised to hear that, but some fans taking the initiative to get on the Jumbotron makes much more sense.
October 26, 2019 @ 6:46 pm
Thank you for clearing that up. I did not want my initial post to be misleading. I did not have all the information and just thought it was something hung up backstage while he was pouring shots of jack Daniels during that song and it was supposed to be on big screen.
October 26, 2019 @ 5:30 pm
Just another reason not to like the guy. Give me a break. What an undeserved, manufactured personality and ego.
October 27, 2019 @ 4:29 am
Here’s your break….now go back and read the posts again idiot.
October 26, 2019 @ 11:22 am
Would be better than some of the other nominees…or potential CMA nominees…….but that ain’t saying much.
October 26, 2019 @ 11:23 am
Love Eric Church’s past winning efforts. But this “Desperate Man” album is not his best effort. The title hit borders on disco, “Some of It” is a great message tune but falling asleep is what it does best. “Hippie Radio” is okay and the rest seems to be fillers. I just cannot see this album as the best of 2019
October 26, 2019 @ 1:08 pm
SOOO people complain about every artist not being country enough but what about ERIC CHURCH? The guy is a great entertainer. But he is more pop rock than anything. I hope he gets Album of the Year. Underwood deserves the female vocalist and Entertainer of the year win! Again when artists like Scotty McCreey who is traditional country and releases a great album but receives no airplay or nominations people should NOT Complain about the state of country music. They are the ones that chose to promote FGL, and Dan and Shay over other great artists.
October 26, 2019 @ 1:37 pm
The CMAs havnt been that exciting touching tv program the last few years and i have not seen Eric Church in concert but definately deserves to win both awards. A true gem in the musical industry. Listen to the words along with the music. Im tounched in different ways daily. This guys a genius and im rooting all the way for him. Sorry Carrie youve had your spotlight and this guy truly deserves his.
October 26, 2019 @ 4:14 pm
Eric Church is the greatest!! He deserves to win more awards! He is honest and true! Love him and his music!!
October 26, 2019 @ 4:21 pm
No artist deserves to win more than EC after the most incredible year he has had!! My vote is for the chief and”Desperate Man” ????
October 26, 2019 @ 4:58 pm
Church gets a pass for everything in 2019 just for giving Ray Wylie Hubbard his propers. Regardless of whether or not his song Desperate Man blatantly ripped off The Rolling Stones, Saint of Me. Peace
October 26, 2019 @ 10:44 pm
The April ACM’s Album of the Year Predictions:
Wildcard , Miranda
Heartache Medication, Pardi
Center Point Road, Thomas Rhett
What You See is What you Get , Luke Combs
Old Dominion, self titled
Honorable mention: Let it Roll , Midland….. Little Big Town’s new album
October 26, 2019 @ 11:09 pm
* I obviously don’t agree with all of this personally.. Just representing what will likely happen
October 27, 2019 @ 2:16 am
I feel bad for his drummer Craig Wright. Poor guy went from drumming with Steve Earle and Shaver to Eric Church. He is the one who deserves an award for having to listen to Eric Church nightly.
October 27, 2019 @ 1:41 pm
He’s probably consoling himself in the new house he bought and paid for with cash. Oh, and the new car. And the college education for his kids.
A mucisian friend told me once that people just want to play and there is no nobility in playing guitar for someone playing small places when you could be playing bigger ones making more $.
October 28, 2019 @ 3:15 am
Somebody asked Bobcat Goldthwaite what he was going to tell his kids if they asked him about all those talking horse movies he did. It paid for your college, was his reply.
October 27, 2019 @ 9:27 am
Most, if not all, of those album nominees don’t excite most fans of actual country music.
Trigger says, “Album of the Year regularly goes to the most qualified, and the most critically-acclaimed,” but I would argue, for example, that Reba’s Stronger Than the Truth was at least as qualified and critically acclaimed as other albums on that list. Plus, it actually was country.
The fact that they want Reba to co-host the event — to be seen as part of the solution to the current problem of country women being overlooked — and yet have failed to include her great album in what became a very mediocre album-of-the-year field, shows that their convictions are about as weak and insincere as their nominee choices.
I use Reba as an example because she’s a personal favorite of mine, but as Trigger has noted here and elsewhere, there were other mainstream albums far more country and far more deserving than the selected nominees.
As with so many of these issues, this all boils down to non-country acts making country fans unnecessarily angry by seeking and accepting country music honors. Dan + Shay for “country” album of the year? That’s legitimate cause for the staging of a protest or intervention.
October 27, 2019 @ 3:58 pm
You’re on point re Reba’s record and I would like to add George Strait’s as well. Those two delivered country music in mainstream.
I hadn’t thought about the fact they brought Reba on to co host but failed to nominate her. Sure does seem like a bullshit attempt to back women.
October 28, 2019 @ 11:13 am
I love Craig Wright. He was in my very favorite band of all time, Shaver. I am not suggesting or implying he is compromising his integrity by playing with Church. I never mentioned or honestly thought about the money aspect. Shaver is a genius and Eric Church is very mediocre. I think that drop off in talent would be frustrating at times . I hope he makes all the money he deserves.
October 31, 2019 @ 7:22 pm
Only thing desperate is EC and CMA
November 16, 2019 @ 3:27 am
Lol who the h*** is Eric church only have only heard 0 hits from the guy he looks like a weasel and wants to talk smack about a man that is king of country and that is jealous evidently because he knows he can perform nor do the things that Garth Brooks Does for all his fans I have met Garth Brooks face-to-face have shaken his hand And conversating with the man for over 20 minutes Just like he says he saved his voice for his fans he had a concert that was coming up and that he did not want To not save his voice for that night just to perform the song he performed for entertainer of the year Garth Brooks is not someone Is going to give an excuse to use nor jeopardize having fans being lost due to something the people should understand and if you have ever Saying your a** off and entertayne along with it you should know what it is light in the main shoes I have done Garth Brooks in karaoke and I have performed just like Garth Brooks running around staining up on a bar singing my a** off Just to hit the notes the man hits I think air church is nothing but a little cry baby weasel that knows that he will never be half the man that Was and still is the best country legend singer of all Times let’s see Eric church do a 5 day concert Y Garth brutes let’s see Eric church sing in a stadium Performance like Garth Brooks is doing let’s also see him do performance at bars like Garth Brooks is doing as well for his fans The man sings his a** off and I stand by his side 100% as a fan in understand exactly where hes coming from and I think I would do the same dam thing that It’s not about the dam awards it’s about the fans and I respect that he said that in honor he had at the same time in a people can understand it kiss my Oklahoma a** And one more thing I don’t think Eric church would even stand there for hours signing autographs Then will not leave until it is the last man that walks out to human walking away happy just to know they got to shake his hand And carry a conversation with the man and learning that is just like you and I just the person that’s how he acts respects the values of his life that was given by his fans and that’s the way it should be because the fans are what makes the artist who they are I stand by Garth Brooks side and I am a proud fan from Oklahoma and I stand by him all the way Eric church can kiss my Oklahoma a**Are you have to do is look at his picture and he looks exactly like a dam weasel that just wants to start ship in the country Music industryWith someone he knows that doesn’t really give a ship about what he thinks because Garth Brooks Has and always will be the biggest country legend of all times standing beside George Strait and all the Others how many diamond records has Eric church ever received and how many wreckers has he sold the last time I checked Garth Brooks was I believe 6 diamond records I might be wrong but I know over 200 million albums sold What doesTalk shoot about that or does he not know who he is really talking to and needs to watch that little weasel mouth of his
December 19, 2019 @ 3:56 am
Eric Church is a joke. The guy tries so hard to be a outlaw. Hey little Eric you will never be a outlaw. No matter how hard you try. Take that dumb ass Hank Jr eagle necklace off too. Im sure deep down Hank Jr hates you wearing that.