Coronavirus Will Create Overcrowded Fall Season for Live Music
At this point, finding a live music performance on the calendar in March is as hard as finding a roll of toilet paper for sale, and any date in April is tenuous at best now too. Some May festivals and tours have also been rescheduled or postponed, and it’s likely some early summer plans could be interrupted as well due to COVID-19.
For some events like SXSW, Miami’s Ultra Fest, and the UK’s massive Glastonbury Festival, there was no opportunity to reschedule to a later date in the year due to the logistical nightmare these events present. But many spring events, especially those in locales too hot to host events in the dead of summer, are circling dates in weekends in the fall for rescheduling, while many music tours big and small see September through November as the time to make up cancelled plans.
But this is bound to create a problem in the already-crowded festival and touring space. Even before Coronavirus concerns, we were seeing many festivals cancelling or postponing 2020 plans due to the inability to secure talent or due to competing festivals moving into their markets. Now that you will have spring festivals competing with fall ones, and sometimes centered around the same genres and in the same geographic region, this could create an unprecedented squeeze on talent to fill out lineups, let alone finding fans to fill up the fields and VIP sections.
Along with the mega festivals of spring like Coachella and Stagecoach in California, the Tortuga Fest in Fort Lauderdale, and Jazz Fest in New Orleans which have all now moved to the fall of 2020, you have many regional festivals doing the same thing. This week, Old Settler’s Fest just outside of Austin, TX set to happen in mid April said they will reschedule to the fall. The massive Texas music-based Larry Joe Taylor Festival near Fort Worth also in April says it will now take place October 19-24th.
UPDATE: Tennessee’s mega, multi-genre festival Bonnaroo has also just announced they’ll be moving from the originally-scheduled date of June 11th-14th, to September 24-27.
These new fall festivals will go along with regular tour performances by national acts that now have a backlog of commitments to ticket holders due to early 2020 cancellations, as well as larger events like the recently-rescheduled performance by Chris Stapleton, Willie Nelson, Jamey Johnson, and Yola at the new Globe Life Park in Arlington, TX. It was originally set for March 14th, and now will happen on November 21st. Even major awards shows like the ACM’s originally scheduled for April 5th are looking towards the fall to finally get their event in, moving to a TBD date in September. The Billboard Music Awards have also been postponed with a new date yet announced, and all of this will come in the midst of the fall football season when television slots are at a premium.
Still these reschedules are a better option than some events that have been forced to cancel outright, including Willie Nelson’s Luck Reunion as part of SXSW, and North Carolina’s bluegrass-oriented MerleFest that was scheduled for late April. With such large and omnivorous lineups, coordinating schedules for a different time proved difficult or impossible. If May ends up being affected by cancellations, you could have even more of a crowded fall, with events like Hangout Fest in Gulf Shores, Alabama set for May 15-17 being forced to move.
So along with long-established fall events like ACL Fest, AmericanaFest, Bristol Rhythm and Roots, and a host of others, there will be a myriad of rescheduled events fighting for space on the calendar come the fall of 2020. Ultimately we may see some spring events that moved to the fall being forced to cancel after all.
Also expect to see a lot of rescheduled dates for tours landing on weeknights. We’ve seen this with many of the new dates on the Sturgill Simpson / Tyler Childers arena tour (some of which in April are likely to be rescheduled again). With so many dates being postponed, trying to find time to host events, especially in arenas which will also be hosting NBA and NHL games is already creating a logistical nightmare, and headaches for ticketholders who can’t make the rescheduled performances.
Of course, these concerns pale in comparison to the health concerns COVID-19 is presenting, but even when life returns to normal, it may take a year or more to unwrinkle the live music map and calendar, while some events may choose to permanently move to the fall as opposed to attempting to produce multiple events six months apart—something that will be difficult for many of the independent promoters who put on these festivals, especially as talent continues to come at more and more of a premium.
To ensure the health and well-being of the live music space, festival promoters, booking agents, and venue owners are going to need to coordinate more than ever to make sure they’re not stepping on each other’s toes, or inadvertently (or purposely) siphoning fans, artists, and dollars away from each other by rescheduling their events too close together. Bigger promoters like LiveNation and AEG who are known for their predatory practices of setting up rival events to local and regional promoters must be especially guarded against.
Similar concerns should be considered for album releases. Though the to move to postpone an album release to the fall will be compelling for many bands and artists so as not to compete with Coronavirus news, this could also lend to an overcrowded marketplace where your album might get buried, while right now many music fans are looking for new music as they spend time at home in isolation or self-quarantine.
Right now a lot of concerned fans are wondering where to put their music money for artists, venues, and promoters who will be struggling to make ends meet without the ability to present live music. Though tips for streaming performances from the living rooms of artists can be important bridge through this difficult time, fans with the means might want to leave open a slush fund and vacation time for the swell of performances in the fall that will invariably be flooding the calendar, and will need fans to continue.
March 18, 2020 @ 8:27 am
Some epidemiologists and public health experts have started suggesting, on the more extreme side, that strict social distancing policies will continue well into next winter, or, more plausibly, be imposed intermittently for the next year. If that’s the case, then we might see anywhere from 2-4 more periods of shut down. The trouble being that when exactly those would be will be difficult for artists and event planners to predict, given that the government will be responding to fast-changing data. That could mean many more rounds of cancelation and rescheduling or just a general postponement of anything that takes a substantial amount of planning until the situation is more certain. Either way, I think the virus is going to be a lot more disruptive than many are currently planning on.
March 18, 2020 @ 8:31 am
Would you now agree that your response earlier this month regarding the Austin mayor was out of order. He was obviously acting on information he had. The pity is that a lot more governors,mayors and politicos had not acted as he/she had. Your hope that a lot of these events can be rescheduled is very optimistic. Here, throughout Europe, whole sporting programmes are being binned. Euros 2020 cancelled. Grand National cancelled. Theatres, pubs, cinemas etc shut down. If one is to listen to health and scientific officials it is hard to see any movement back to normality for another 12 months. Let us hope and pray we are still here when a vaccine is found. It is hard to imagine no gigs, concerts etc. But it has been done before.
March 18, 2020 @ 9:38 am
Paddy (and others),
Clearly, if I had written my original article about SXSW today, I would have taken a different tone. But I’ve already said many times since then, cancelling SXSW, and now all the subsequent events that were also scheduled to occur this week in the shadow of the SXSW cancellation, as well as all of the restriction on individuals and music gatherings, was obviously the most prudent thing to do. That said, that original article continues to be mischaracterized as a “Coronavirus is a hoax” article which it never was. I said myself in the article that if the situation became worse, SXSW should be cancelled. I said, QUOTE: “If cases began to appear in Austin, or a dramatic spike in the spread of the disease occurred, there would still be time to cancel the event in the future.”
I also said in the article, QUOTE: “This is not in any way to say there isn’t cause for concern about the Coronavirus, or cause for concern about the Coronavirus somehow affecting SXSW festivities, or other live music events.”
Nonetheless, I continue to believe there is a great amount of hysteria surrounding this Coronavirus disease. That is not to say it is not a very serious matter. Of course it is. But hysteria by definition is the amount of concern beyond the actual concern that should be shown. When you have people hoarding toilet paper and PERISHABLES that are impossible to horde because they’re just going to go bad, and people parading the worst case scenario of unproven models as what WILL happen, this is hysteria by definition. This hysteria is in turn robbing communities of food supplies, significantly affecting poor and elderly people, and causing problems that more cool-minded assessments would not cause.
I agree, my original article on SXSW has not aged well. But we’ll see if the estimates you and others shared of 250,000 dead in the UK, and 4 million infected in the US by May age well too. One of the issues here is that too many people are too busy choosing sides and wanting to be right (including on the foolish “There’s nothing to be concerned about” side) instead of opening dialogue and worrying about everyone. This is not an intellectual exercise. For many this is life and death, and financial well being. One prediction that I made that came 100% true was that the cancelling of SXSW would be the first domino to fall in what would eventually be the decimation of the music industry. Foreseeing the implications on music, specifically the artists, the venues, the independent promoters that I fight for every day on this site and have for 12 years, who I knew were going to be incredibly injured over this issue, is what resulted in me having a very emotional reaction to the news. Obviously, lives come first, but I wanted people to know that they just signed a death sentence to many careers in music with their decision. Obviously, those concerns now pale in comparison to the health and well being of the public.
March 18, 2020 @ 10:07 am
If you are going to quote figures please do so correctly. I gave the figure of 250000 as estimated by a host of health professionals if “the government did not change direction”. The govt has done so. It is finally listening to the professionals. What they are now doing will not help the music business. But it will help the population as a whole.
March 18, 2020 @ 1:58 pm
Trigger, please…….keep doing exactly what you’re doing. For every one of your grandstanding commenters (not directed at Paddy), I think (without evidence – so maybe I hope) there are at least 5x as many of your readers that appreciate your point of view, and your lack of self censorship. For sure I can say that’s half the reason I read your articles. Those that can’t handle thought that they perceive deviates slightly from the “acceptable” narratives will never get it, but it is admirable that you have the patience to try and engage.
March 18, 2020 @ 8:40 am
Suffice to say, the entire music and entertainment industry is receiving death blows in 2020. Many, like my wife are losing their jobs due to this nightmare, and many of us are gonna be forced into a mandatory quaratine and our income may be uncertain at best. Simply put, many of us will not be spending money on music for the foreseeable future. Personally, we are looking to slash any unnecessary spending. I have my record collection, several thousand mp3s and the internet. That’s where my music is gonna come from. Even when concerts come back, I think a lot of folks will be spending money on other things.
Unfortunately, many musicians will have to find another way to make a living. That’s the reality. I’m sure many of these fests will end up going belly up and not returning. Really don’t think things will return to normal for quite a while. I know this is really pessimistic and I don’t wanna be that way, but the facts seem to point to that conclusion.
March 18, 2020 @ 12:30 pm
I would say there is going to be a lot of pent up demand, a lot of people stir crazy from quarantine ready to lose themselves in some live music for an evening, but you rightly point out a lot of people won’t have the resources in the fall they had before this got started.
I really believe this will change how we live in significant ways (most unrelated to music). A lot of music venues may disappear for good. A lot of musicians are going to be living Corb Lund’s nightmare and not all of them will wake up from it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8sd7B10f1X8&list=RD8sd7B10f1X8&start_radio=1
March 19, 2020 @ 3:58 pm
I feel for you, all other musicians, and everyone else in this country who have had thier livelihoods disrupted. My wife had to close her beauty salon yesterday after the governor order them all closed. I saw a meme on facebook that said “to bad we don’t trust our government enough to know if this is a real pandemic or not”. Sad situation
March 18, 2020 @ 8:41 am
Interesting to think about…but surprised you didn’t mention anything about the fact that a huge portion of the population are taking a severe economic hit right now, and it’s just going to get worse. Surely that will have an effect on sales and possibly even bankruptcies. The “when life return to normal” situation, that soon, seems like it might be a little overly optimistic., but let’s hope you’re right…and a crowded concert / album schedule is actually one of our concerns.
March 18, 2020 @ 8:56 am
Look, I’m openly struggling with how to cover this Coronavirus issue. Do I try to just keep it positive and on the music, and try to keep people’s minds off the subject? Or do I try to give a blow by blow account of all the cancellations and calamities occurring in music and beyond? Clearly people are suffering, both health wise, and economically. People don’t need me to tell them that, and undoubtedly this is going to significantly affect the discretionary spending of music fans well into the future. I’m just especially concerned at the moment with so many people rescheduling to the fall without perhaps looking at the bigger picture that this could cannibalize the live music industry at a time when it will hopefully be in recovery. I think this was a discussion point that needed to be broached.
March 18, 2020 @ 9:03 am
Understand, just thought it was worth at least mentioning, even briefly. Don’t mean to be too scrutinizing…I understand this is hard to cover. We don’t yet know the bottom of the economic fallout and damage of trying to flatten the curve.
March 18, 2020 @ 9:39 am
No worries Jake, just using your comment to elaborate on some things I want folks to know.
March 18, 2020 @ 10:22 am
Hey Trig, all best wishes. One interesting angle is always how people adapt. Robert’s Western World live-streamed some performances and held up placards in front of the camera with a PayPal address for a tip jar. Made me wonder who is going to make the jump to a remunerative all-digital format. I’d buy stock in YouTube, Twitch.tv, and so on.
We may be entering a new “digital fireside” world where instead of a radio we get together by a laptop on the couch.
March 18, 2020 @ 10:33 am
I have very mixed feelings about this new concert streaming paradigm. As a stop gap through the crisis, it is an excellent way for artists to make a little extra money, and I’m happy it’s here to utilize. But long term, it will not do enough to support the side players, venues, promoters, sounds guys, labels, etc. Streaming concerts have been around for a long time, and never really caught on for a reason. They just can’t replace the real thing. But I fear with the way artists are able to make money without leaving their living room, and with the precedent we’ve set by shutting the whole country down, people will try to make this the new wave of the future, which I fear will do more harm than good. Sharing that in an article though will just be misunderstood by people who are too lazy to read it, or look at the bigger picture. The best thing for the music industry is to get through this situation and return to normal ASAP.
March 18, 2020 @ 10:42 am
I just got an update off the Relix YT page that Willies Luck Reunion is going to livestream tomorrow starting at 6 pm central time until 11 pm. The musicians who were scheduled to play the reunion are going to do call-in sets from their homes. Willie and his sons, Nathaniel Rateliffe, Jewel, Randy Hauser, Margo Price and Jeremy Ivey and a bunch more. Willies gonna get the music to us in these trying times.
March 18, 2020 @ 8:43 am
So the fall promoters need to postpone until next spring, and everybody keep their respective places going forward.
Problem solved. You’re welcome.
Send me TP for my bunghole as my reward.
March 18, 2020 @ 8:48 am
We’re fucking ourselves directly into a depression. Few will have money to spend on frivolities, such as concert tickets.
March 18, 2020 @ 9:06 am
Yep, and we are attacking anyone who dares to question it.
March 18, 2020 @ 1:51 pm
The resulting depression from the hysteria might be worse than the coronavirus itself. As someone who is working on a terminal degree right now – expecting to finish in 2022 – the gravity of the situation is not lost on me. It’s frustrating as hell to think of all of the lives and potential wasted due to the RESPONSE, not the actual virus itself.
Is this thing a hoax? No; but the reaction to it sure is.
March 18, 2020 @ 2:20 pm
Worst of all, the “flattening of the curve” itself may backfire:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/
March 18, 2020 @ 2:52 pm
Prefer the Italy approach of letting the old people die on the floor in the hallways of hospitals?
March 18, 2020 @ 3:12 pm
If you read the article, the point is that flattening the curve may actually cause more of that….so I guess you should ask yourself that question.
March 18, 2020 @ 2:58 pm
Thanks for sharing this. As someone who reads a lot of research (PhD student), even though I’m not an expert in this area, it’s pretty obvious that a lot more people have this than what is reported, given a large variance in symptoms. I keep hoping this will work itself out before we destroy our entire way of life, but that appears increasingly doubtful.
March 18, 2020 @ 3:14 pm
No problem ChrisP. Thank you for being able to read and not make knee jerk assumptions about my comment.
March 18, 2020 @ 4:09 pm
Im in Canada and so far because there isnt enough tests for the general population they are only testing people with obvious symptoms. Our Prime Ministers wife is positive but the PM and their children arent showing any symptoms and havnt been tested. Rightly or wrongly im glad our government is making an effort to slow this before we end up like Italy or Wuhan at the beginning. I have an 94 yr old parent living with me and would perfer her not ‘die on the hospital floor’
March 18, 2020 @ 4:11 pm
i should have mentioned PM Trudeau and his children are self isolating for 14 days
March 18, 2020 @ 4:47 pm
Dan, did you read the linked article?
March 19, 2020 @ 12:30 am
I did read it Jake
March 19, 2020 @ 12:33 am
I did.
March 18, 2020 @ 9:47 am
While there may be some shows this year and next there is no “back to normal” until a vaccine is developed.
I’ll be optimistic and say we can expect a return to regular live music touring schedules in 2022.
March 18, 2020 @ 10:38 am
Many parts of China have returned to normal already. South Korea has also come out of the worst and from a different strategy involving mass testing. People keep relying on the worst projections as opposed to the median. Yes, it could be 2022. But it could also be May, especially with all the mass cancellations and the shutting down of American life.
March 18, 2020 @ 11:31 am
It’s not going to be May, sadly. I’d stand on Bob Dylan’s coffee table in my cowboy boots and say that.
March 18, 2020 @ 12:34 pm
I think that depends on the goal. If we’re trying to prevent people from getting infected ever, then yeah, we have to wait for a vaccine. If the goal is just to spread out the infections so that the hospitals can keep up, I don’t see why it would be more than a few months.
If we’re going with option A, we will be forcing the global economy to a grinding halt that will take decades to recover from. I’m pretty sure we’re going with B. Bars and restaurants will be open again by the 4th of July, at the latest. Cinco de Mayo at the earliest.
March 18, 2020 @ 12:44 pm
I’m just making shit up. I don’t really know and shouldn’t pretend to. But I’m still seeing lots of photos of people crowding beaches in Florida, not to mention crowded in airports, so it seems like new infections are probably still happening every day kind of willy-nilly. In addition, especially with what seems to have been a paucity of testing that has been done thus far in the U.S., I’m worried that we don’t have a true picture of the magnitude of the problem yet and that there is going to be an explosion that hasn’t happened yet.
March 18, 2020 @ 1:07 pm
Trigger. Make yourself a fortune. Go to the bank. Get a massive loan. Then go to Vegas if there is an upturn by May you will be laughing all the to the bank to repay the loan.
March 18, 2020 @ 9:51 am
I’m an event organizer for a country fest in my area. We had an early summer date locked in, however, artists are already wanting to reschedule for late summer. It’s a mess. Artists have very few open summer and fall dates, so trying to get all the logistics determined has been days of phone calls between management.
March 18, 2020 @ 10:27 am
Just updated the story to reflect that Bonnaroo has now moved to late September as well. As one of the biggest festivals in the country covering multiple genres, this is going to be a huge talent suck on the rest of the country.
March 18, 2020 @ 12:17 pm
Would say the liquor stores sure are prospering in some areas of our country, where tens/hundreds of thousands of Spring Breakers, are on the beaches today.
Where there are Spring Breakers, you know there is music, & lots of it
March 18, 2020 @ 12:29 pm
The liquor stores in Pennsylvania are controlled by the state and they are all closed!!! Beer distributors are still open. We made a run into West Virginia to get a haircut and liquor yesterday. I’ve often made trips into West Virginia for hard to find or new bourbons because the State stores’ assortments aren’t that deep and only refresh yearly.
March 18, 2020 @ 12:39 pm
Hoptown, you never fail to make me smile.
Love your Spirit
March 18, 2020 @ 2:07 pm
Ahhh, a fellow bourbon guy. I got a pretty good bourbon collection going on. Latest find was Old Forester 1910. Its an interesting one with lots of unique flavors. My staple go to is Buffalo Trace or Eagle Rare, although they tend to fly off the shelves rather quickly these days! Yeah Pennsylvania Liquor does suck big time, they need to learn from Ohio, the current guy running it makes all kinds of interesting buys and barrel picks.
March 18, 2020 @ 5:00 pm
I’ve had Old Forester, but not the 1910. I’ll put it on my list. People buy me Makers Mark, Bulliet, and Bookers, but honestly my go to is Jim Beam.
This trip to WV, we got Mellow Corn which is actually a Kentucky straight corn whiskey that’s been experiencing a revival thanks to its popularity in craft cocktail bars (and a bigger producer like Beam recently bought them). It doesn’t have many bourbon qualities (more like moonshine), but good and we got it for $17 a bottle.
March 19, 2020 @ 9:24 am
Go try Black Bush. An Irish whiskey. King of them all.
March 18, 2020 @ 12:21 pm
I sure hope you are right! Either way, now is the time to write songs and shoot videos.
March 18, 2020 @ 12:30 pm
Trigger, I am not trying to run you down. We must face facts. The music business is going to be crucified. Sadly those who will suffer most will be the talented ones. The dicks (hello FGL)
will survive. Tyler may not be able to make a comeback. Why I say the talented ones will suffer is that an awful lot of the venues they play will no longer be there. An awful lot of artists are already in trouble. But so are those of us who have lost jobs simply because our employers have no business left. Bars shut etc. etc. And if anybody thinks all will be fine come Fall/Autumn there are casinos in Vegas happy to take a bet. If any are still operating.
March 18, 2020 @ 1:22 pm
My net worth has been decimated in less than 2 weeks and like many in show business I have no income in the foreseeable 60-90ish day window. The unemployment benefit website was never setup for anything like this either. It just crashes. Never the less life goes on. I’m hoping the May 8th Flatland Cavalry/Steelwoods show I have a ticket for is still a go but it’s more likely to rescheduled to the fall along with possibly the Mike and The Moonpies June 25th show I bought a ticket for? Both were reasonably priced for any of my own financial eventuality. Cody has a video up on his FB page saying many dates are being rescheduled into August hopefully including April 30th here with Whitey. Like someone else above said….not sure buying a $100 concert ticket to a show I’ve already seen is in my wheelhouse at this time but we’ll see. It was still one of the best I’d ever been to. Thanks Cody!
March 18, 2020 @ 2:03 pm
Sorry to hear JB.
March 18, 2020 @ 1:46 pm
In addition to all this, music and live performances will probably be moved down the scale of importance for many during and immediately after this pandemic. So if a turnaround occurs, say late summer, I do not believe this will result in an immediate turnaround for the music and live entertainment industries.
Basic cares of life such as employment will rule the day. I predict, such that I can, that the entertainment industry, especially live performances, might be one of the last sectors to recover. I am thinking this whole year is pretty much a wash-out.
March 18, 2020 @ 3:51 pm
The hysteria is far worse than ANY flu- and I guar-on-god damn – tee if a democrat was POTUS the media wouldn’t be creating the fucking hysteria. Every condemning headline is Trump based he didn’t do this or that- and no, I’m not a Trump fan and I despise Republican politicians as much as I despise Democrat politicians but my despising of them doesn’t even come close to the despising I have for the media. (Trigger excluded) a bunch of empty suited talking heads and alleged journalist that couldn’t journal their way out of a wet paper unless their Democrat handlers were beside them giving them instructions memorized from DNC talking points and even then they’d blame Trump because the paper sack they were in was outside in the fucking rain. Morons every fucking one.
March 18, 2020 @ 5:00 pm
DJ, apparently the current Administration believes the situation is pretty damn serious. This story (yes, it’s from The Washington Post) reports on a UK study that has convinced the President’s team that some unthinkable numbers are in our future:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/a-chilling-scientific-paper-helped-upend-us-and-uk-coronavirus-strategies/2020/03/17/aaa84116-6851-11ea-b199-3a9799c54512_story.html
Note that it says “12 to 18 months.”
What the Spring Break kids Di Harris mentioned in a comment above are doing isn’t OK.
March 18, 2020 @ 5:37 pm
The study in this article says that without action, 2.2 million Americans will die. WITH dramatic action, 1.1 million Americans will die. Those numbers don’t align with anything we’re seeing in the field. China, where the virus started, has an inferior healthcare system, and more dense population, and worse hygiene, has only seen 81,000 cases total, and 3,200 deaths. They’ve also come out of the worst, and are starting to open the country back up, with very few new cases being reported. South Korea is having similar results, and has also come out of the worst. These two countries were the canary in the coal mine.
The numbers being cited by many of these studies are absolutely insane. The highly-respected Anthony Fauchi said in a press briefing yesterday that they believe the death rate from COVID-19 is roughly 0.7. Even if it is three or four times that, it would still be nearly impossibly for 1.1 million Americans to die from the disease, let alone 2.2 million. All of these study projections are based on the worst of worst case scenarios carried out much farther than the curve of this disease has already evidenced.
But unfortunately, if you point this out, you’re not being alarmist enough, and you’re accused of being “against science.” There is ample science pointing to the United States being into recovery by May. Maybe it will take longer. Maybe there will be 1 million dead. That is certainly a possibility, and it is the job of projections to extrapolate out to the worst case scenarios. But the worst case scenario in any study is only likely to occur 1% or less of the time.
Coronavirous is a very, very serious matter. But some of the numbers being cited are beyond insanity. And that insanity is breeding more insanity and harming life more than this disease ever could.
March 18, 2020 @ 6:49 pm
One potential problem is that some models may not be factoring in the effect of mitigating strategies already underway in the US.
Here is a good summary of that view: https://www.hoover.org/research/coronavirus-isnt-pandemic
That said, the stories out of Italy are not good, and reports of severe lung damage in young people who contracted the virus are also … not good.
It’s going to be a rough few weeks before warmer weather helps to tamp things down.
March 19, 2020 @ 6:37 am
Lets get our science from scientists and our music from musicians.
March 19, 2020 @ 9:34 am
This is one of the truly scary aspects of all this. Who do you believe. Yesterday the U.K. government announced all schools will close from next Monday. The Irish government closed all Irish schools last week. What are these governments being told. I accept that things in China and South Korea are improving but why are other countries getting hammered. Italy and Spain are going through truly horrible times. It may be that the figures from some countries are being managed by their governments.
March 19, 2020 @ 12:32 pm
We can’t trust any numbers coming out of China…and our government’s response has been much closer to Italy’s than South Korea’s, despite having literally months longer to prepare.
March 19, 2020 @ 2:08 pm
I’m seeing a lot of folks complaining about the USA’s response to Coronavirus as being one of the worst in the world, but this is another misconception that just isn’t born out in the numbers. The United States has by far the lowest per million people infected (36) in the industrialized world, even with the rapid ramp up in testing over the last 48 hours, along with some of the lowest death rates. If our response was terrible, what do we say about Italy, or about France which has a per million rate of 168, or Germany with 183, or Spain with 384? And this is not due to lack of testing, because those countries have been criticized for testing as well. The US numbers will continue to go up for probably the next 48 hours, but are not projected to get nearly that high. Are those countries up in arms over their government’s response, or are they coming together to help get through the virus?
Undoubtedly, more could have been done, equipment and tests better staged, etc. But it was the US’s preemptive move to band travel from China before other European countries that is being given credit for the infection rate remaining much lower here. In fact many of the cases in the US are being attributed to Europe, not China.
There is no script for this. Hindsight is always 20/20. But the idea that the US government was or is sitting on it’s hands is untrue. Trump was out there calling it a hoax. But at the same time, the CDC and FDA were already actively working on combating the virus in the United States. We’ve fared very well here, so far at least. Italy has been the outlier for the world.
March 19, 2020 @ 2:57 pm
I hope you are right trigger, but the problem is that testing has been woefully short, and won’t get ramped up for several more weeks. Also, despite all of the precautions and government restrictions in place, citizens don’t seem to be taking it all that seriously. China had a lot of testing and an authoritarian response to enforcing lockdowns, and Korea was able to do an almost unbelievable job at quickly mobilizing testing.
The key is testing and identifying any and all possible cases, which those countries did a good job of. So far in the US, all we have done for all but the most vulnerable / serious cases is tell people to “stay home if you have symptoms”. That’s not to mention all the asymptomatic people who are in the early stages of having it, are able to spread it, but are doing a crappy job of social distancing / isolation. The train has left the station here due to lack of testing, and it’s going to get far, far worse before it gets better. Unfortunately, China and Korea are not good comparisons to the situation in the US. From a concert perspective, my guess is it is going to be well into the Fall before any of us are enjoying live music.
March 19, 2020 @ 3:53 pm
I say this with a ton of respect, but…the reason we have “the lowest per million people infected (36) in the industrialized world” is that, even with “the rapid ramp up in testing over the last 48 hours,” we’re still testing far, far, fewer people than most other civilized countries, particularly relative to our population.
Germany has a population of 80 million. Their first confirmed case came a week after ours.
They’ve been testing 12,000 people per day for a while.
Our recent “ramp up” just got us to 8,000 per day, in a country of 330 million.
The only reason our numbers are so low is that even our sick people can’t get tested…even as South Korea and its population of 50 million test 20,000 people per day, in drive-throughs.
March 19, 2020 @ 4:31 pm
Trigger, you speak with the voice of reason.
March 21, 2020 @ 8:16 am
Why anybody would believe anything coming out of China is perplexing. Things aren’t “returning to normal” in China until their schools reopen. Other than Xinjiang and Guizhou, two remote areas of China, all schools in other provinces and regions are closed.
China has to spin the narrative now that everything is OK so that the world will give them credit for defeating the pandemic and therefore will be more willing to come groveling to China for their “wise council” about what to do. Of course the purpose in this is to turn it around on them in the future to say “Don’t you remember during the outbreak how our country came to aid and rescue you?” Regardless of the fact that they are the ones who started this mess.
China also has already been developing the scapegoats for their next virus outbreak reports by blaming “foreigners coming to China” as if any foreigners are traveling to China right now. What they are really covering up is that their own citizens are now trying to come back to China because they are reporting the virus is gone and it is safe but when their own citizens bring the virus back to them they just blame “foreigners” as always for their problems.
March 18, 2020 @ 7:59 pm
DJ,
Can’t say I disagree with your assessment.
March 18, 2020 @ 5:57 pm
I sure hope you’re right. I don’t know my a*s from a hole in the ground when it comes to any of this highly technical stuff about medicine, science, epidemiology, or statistics. I just know what I read. The article also said if the UK goes “all out to suppress viral spread,” the number of dead in that country could “drop below 20,000,” but that would depend on extremely comprehensive efforts and would take 12-18 months. Again, I’m only qualified to read the newspaper, not actually give an opinion on what could happen or what’s going to happen. And this is a country music website, lol, so my apologies for prolonging the conversation.
“Finally, if the British government quickly went all-out to suppress viral spread — aiming to reverse epidemic growth and reduce the case load to a low level — then the number of dead in the country could drop to below 20,000. To do this, the researchers said, Britain would have to enforce social distancing for the entire population, isolate all cases, demand quarantines of entire households where anyone is sick, and close all schools and universities — and do this not for weeks but for 12 to 18 months, until a vaccine is available.”
March 18, 2020 @ 6:26 pm
Rural Australia here, the one pub in our town may be closing this weekend and we are already starting to plan illegal parties, unofficial places to meet and drink etc.
Of course, in the country we are more used to doing something than to sit and wait, but it won’t take long at all before an attitude of ‘I’d rather die than live like this’ comes into play.
As for the severity…. humans are stupid. Unless it looks like people dying right in front of us we won’t pay it any attention. I mean, we stayed to defend our houses when the forecast said the fire would burn us all to death.
I feel sorry for people who lose income, hopefully it will bounce back.
Meanwhile, we just need to fix the exchange rate so I can come over in summer and support your music and alcohol industries.
Think happy thoughts people
March 19, 2020 @ 5:20 am
Assessing the challenge posed by the COVID-19 pandemic.
https://spectator.org/apocalypse-no/
https://getpocket.com/explore/item/how-to-be-thankful-for-your-life-by-changing-just-one-word?utm_source=pocket-newtab
March 19, 2020 @ 7:02 am
Music will survive this virus. There will Always be music, just watch the videos of people singing from teir balconies. Music gives comfort, and also gives the chance to unload aggression or frustration. It Always will. And clubs will open again, like I hope the world will open up again, but it might take some time.
My favorite song to go to when something bad happens is Ignorance, by Australian singer-songwriter Kasey Chambers. There is a line in that song: “if you’re not pissed off athe world, then you’re just not paying attention”. Right now, I don’t want to be pissed off, I want to believe that we as humans can survive this crisis, if we stick together.
And I consider myself lucky that before everything shut down, I had the chance to see Tyler Childers and Austin Lucas in my hometown Nijmegen, Holland. It’s very likely the last American artists I’ll see this year.
Everyone stay healthy.
March 19, 2020 @ 9:21 am
Just to cheer everyone up. Go to Bandcamp. Daniel Romero has just posted an album. 3 Canadian dollars. It is awesome. Title is Visions Of The Higher Dream. Man is a genius
March 19, 2020 @ 1:07 pm
Silly me. Should be Daniel Romano.
March 19, 2020 @ 1:22 pm
love dan’s stuff. fingers crossed he’s back to his country style, probably not tho. that said mosey and modern pressure were both great. less into the other recent ones.
March 19, 2020 @ 2:05 pm
No. I would not call it country. Still a cracker. And he has another coming in about a fortnight.
March 20, 2020 @ 9:49 am
SCM was all about Romano 7 years ago! I recently unfollowed him on social media because I doubt he ever finds his way back
March 19, 2020 @ 4:11 pm
Trigger I just want to commend you on your approach to this subject. You are one of the few public voices that acknowledge the seriousness of this virus but also present some of the reasonable facts about it. The media should visit your site and take lessons
March 20, 2020 @ 9:26 am
Ben you miss the basic point. I agree with you that a lot of facts are being misrepresented by our darlings in the media. But where do you think Trigger is coming up with his facts. The media. He is quite correct to give us a means to voice our opinions. I agree that the facts as given by a host of our politicians, reporters and TV networks are geared to their own political ideals. But the opinions of all these scientists, medical specialists etc cannot be ignored. As much as I like SCM I would rather put my health in the hands of the health specialists. Not in the hands of a bunch of political idiots who are in it for their own reward. Or indeed a music journalist. He is a member of the media.